PREDICTIVE AUTOREGRESSION MODELING OF RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET TRENDS 2019-2023

PREDICTIVE AUTOREGRESSION MODELING OF RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET TRENDS 2019-2023

At the current stage, when Ukraine is in a crisis situation due to a combination of extremely negative factors (full-scale Russian aggression, dependence on energy resources imports, the consequences of the coronavirus), the problem of forecasting the main parameters of the market evolution is gaining particular importance and relevance. The correctness and effectiveness of the decisions taken for efficient restoration of national economy depends on the consideration of the mentioned problem during the period of systemic crisis, the consequences of which cannot be assessed without analyzing their possible impact on the future. Of course, any future situation is highly uncertain. Therefore, there are no ways to accurately "guess" its development. At the same time, there are many techniques, methods and appropriate tools that allow to identify trends, the logic of the development of certain processes and, based on comparison with past experience, to predict the characteristics of the most likely development of events.

The complexity of the problem of forecasting market parameters at the moment is due to the fact that developing crisis phenomena, provoked by an imbalance of supply and demand in one or more product markets, spread to the markets of other products due to the interconnectedness of the economic system. From the point of view of the possibility of forecasting, this period is characterized by increased uncertainty, when the subsequent behavior of certain market indicators is difficult to predict, and a conclusion can be drawn only from a joint analysis of the behavior of various factors that affect the value of the forecasted indicator.

In the course of the research, an attempt was made to analyze the evolution of residential property market prices. The results of such an analysis can be used as the basis for forecasting the future development of the real estate market.

 

 

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